Material and Methods: Data for the period 8 day and cumulative number of cases till that date, cases who reached “end cumulative number till that day, and obtained from Aarogya Setu, the same was subjected to “time-series analysis” and parameters were calculated by linear regression, using the WHO / CDC statistical package (Epi Info).
Results: The study indicated that between 16th July and 01 August, the number of cases detected till that day are likely to be 11,80,000 (95% CL 10,74,368 to 12,41,768). The cumulative total number of deaths which would occurred till that day are likely to be 20,000 (95% CL 18,800 to 21,200), while the number of total deaths are likely to be 23,000 (95% CL 22,000 to 24,000)
My Comments (on 22 July 2020):
- Total number of cases detected estimated quite accurately. (Today, 22nd July, the mid-day of the period 16 July and 01 August, this figure is 11.90,000 against a projected figure of 11,80,000, projected on 15 June).
- Slight underestimate in total number of deaths
- Marked underestimate in number of cases detected every day. This may be due to the sudden steep rise in detection of new cases per day during the past one week, which the mathematical model (developed on 15 June 2020) was unable to foresee.